Iranian attacks on Gulf smelters expose a strategic gap in US aluminum supply
Iran targeted two of the Gulf's largest aluminum smelters, representing 3.1 million tons of annual capacity, threatening a supply chain the United States relies on for 60% of its aluminum.
| Sectors | Critical Metals |
|---|---|
| Themes | Policy & Geopolitics, Armed Conflict |
| Companies | Aluminium Bahrain, Wood Mackenzie, Emirates Global Aluminium, Panmure Liberum, StoneX |
| Countries | United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Iran, United States |
Iranian attacks on two major Gulf aluminum smelters have exposed a structural vulnerability in the US aluminum supply chain. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) announced that its Al Taweelah plant in Abu Dhabi, with a capacity of approximately 1.5 million metric tons per year, suffered significant damage in Iranian strikes on Saturday. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) reported that its 1.6 million ton per year plant was also targeted. Neither company has issued an update since those initial announcements.
An immediate shock to global markets
London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices surged 6% on Monday to reach $3,492 per ton, close to a four-year high. The prospect of roughly 3 million tons of capacity being simultaneously knocked out triggered the reaction. "In this type of market, if you suddenly remove 3 million tons of capacity, it can't be replaced," said Tom Price, analyst at Panmure Liberum. Paul Adkins, of aluminum consulting firm AZ Global, summarized the shift: "That changes risk's nature."
Before the direct attacks on production facilities, the main disruption stemmed from difficulties shipping raw materials and aluminum through the Strait of Hormuz, closed by Tehran. The direct targeting of production infrastructure marks an escalation in the threat facing the region. The Iranian strikes came in response to Israeli attacks on two steel plants in Iran.
A structural US dependency on imports
Aluminum, listed among the 60 critical minerals identified by the US government, is heavily imported. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the United States relies on imports for 60% of its aluminum consumption. In 2025, domestic primary metal output reached only 660,000 tons — less than half of Alba's output alone. According to Trade Data Monitor, nearly 22% of the 3.4 million tons of primary and alloyed aluminum imported by the US last year came from the Middle East.
The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are the United States' second and fourth largest aluminum suppliers, respectively. EGA and Alba together account for more than two thirds of Gulf aluminum production. Iran justified its attacks by claiming EGA and Alba were connected to US military industries. Uday Patel, senior research manager at Wood Mackenzie, said he saw no direct connection to the US military, beyond the possibility that some metals could eventually find their way into military applications after a long chain of processing and transactions.
Industrial repercussions beyond the military sector
Wood Mackenzie estimates that the US military industry consumes 450,000 tons of aluminum annually. According to Tom Price, most US military aluminum supply would come from Canada. The economic impact of the crisis extends well beyond military demand: aluminum is widely used in automobile manufacturing and packaging. "The stresses have already started to show up in industrial activity, and are further hindering planning which was already suffering from high levels of uncertainty," wrote Natalie Scott-Gray, analyst at StoneX.
