TotalEnergies Forecasts Strong Q4 Results Despite $10 Drop in Oil Prices

TotalEnergies has released a trading update anticipating solid performance for the fourth quarter of 2025. The French major indicates that higher hydrocarbon production and improved refining margins should offset a decline in oil prices of more than $10 per barrel year-over-year. The company states that its operating cash flow is expected to remain stable compared to the previous year.

Production Up 5% in the Fourth Quarter

According to the data released, TotalEnergies forecasts a 5% increase in oil and gas production in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. This performance would bring annual growth to nearly 4%, exceeding the company’s initial guidance of more than 3%. The full fourth-quarter and fiscal year 2025 results are scheduled for release on February 11.

In the integrated liquefied natural gas (LNG) segment, the company anticipates results and cash flow comparable to those of the third quarter of 2025. This stability would be supported by higher LNG volumes produced and the completion of maintenance operations at the Ichthys LNG facility. These factors would offset a 5% decline in average LNG prices year-over-year.

Refining Margins Up 231% in Europe

The Refining & Chemicals division is expected to show significant improvement in earnings and cash flow. TotalEnergies attributes this performance to strong operational execution enabling the capture of a margin increase of more than 30%. Refining margins in Europe surged 231% year-over-year, reaching $85.7 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Among major oil companies, TotalEnergies presents one of the most optimistic outlooks for this fiscal year-end. Other industry players have warned that their fourth-quarter results will likely be lower than the third quarter, citing weak liquids prices, subdued trading activity, and shrinking chemicals margins.