Goldman Sachs Forecasts Oil Price Drop to $56 per Barrel in 2026

The American bank anticipates a surplus of 2 million barrels per day on the global oil market. The supply wave from pandemic-delayed projects and OPEC+ decisions would weigh on prices.

January 12, 2026 Rudy Vervant

Countries	Brésil, Russie, États-Unis
Companies	Goldman Sachs, AIE, OPEP
Sector	Pétrole
Theme	Marchés & Finance

Goldman Sachs anticipates a decline in oil prices through 2026. According to the bank’s analysts, Brent should average $56 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) would reach $52. These forecasts stand below current forward curves of $63 and $60 for Brent and WTI respectively.

A Supply Wave Fueled by Delayed Projects

The bank attributes this oversupply to a convergence of factors. Long-cycle projects that received their final investment decisions just before the pandemic are now simultaneously coming into production after delays caused by the health crisis. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), including Russia, also contributes to this dynamic by increasing production since April. Other producers such as the United States and Brazil are also boosting their output.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) mentions a potentially even larger surplus, reaching up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year. This imbalance between supply and demand weighs on prices. Brent was trading around $64.31 per barrel, while WTI was trading at $60.02.

A Rebound Expected from 2027

Goldman Sachs nevertheless projects a price recovery from 2027. According to the bank, low levels in 2025-2026 would affect non-OPEC production, while few new projects would come online after fifteen years of underinvestment. The institution expects Brent and WTI to return toward its long-term forecasts of $80 and $76 respectively by late 2028.

The bank however identifies risks in both directions. Brent could fall into the $40s in 2026-2027 if non-OPEC supply proves more resilient than anticipated or if the global economy enters a recession. Conversely, prices could exceed $70 per barrel in case of a sharper decline in Russian production.