OPEC+ keeps production targets unchanged for early 2026 despite market pressure
The group of major oil producers extends its stability strategy despite a drop in prices of more than 18% in 2025 and projected supply surplus for the coming year.
| Countries | Émirats Arabes Unis, Kazakhstan, Russie, Arabie Saoudite |
|---|---|
| Companies | Rosneft, AIE |
| Sector | Pétrole |
| Theme | Politique & Géopolitique |
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have decided to keep their production targets unchanged for the first quarter of 2026. In a virtual meeting, the eight major members of the group confirmed the suspension of the increases decided in 2025, thus consolidating a cautious stance amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties affecting the oil market.
Price pressures and restraint strategy
Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan will therefore continue to produce according to the quotas set last November. This decision comes as oil prices fell by more than 18% in 2025, their steepest annual decline since 2020. Global demand weakened during winter, a season typically slower in the northern hemisphere, justifying a restricted supply according to the group.
In 2025, these eight members had nevertheless raised their combined production by 2.9 million barrels per day, representing around 3% of global demand. This increase aimed to regain market share after several years of voluntary cuts but coincided with growing signs of oversupply. No new revision was discussed at the first meeting of 2026.
Surplus risk and non-OPEC+ production
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a supply surplus of 3.8 million barrels per day for 2026. This estimate, slightly down from previous projections, reflects a downward adjustment in production outlooks, particularly in Russia and Venezuela, due to ongoing sanctions.
At the same time, the IEA notes steady growth in supply outside the group, especially in the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina. These countries are increasing pressure on prices by adding extra volumes to an already oversupplied market.
Geopolitical factors and regional uncertainty
The regional geopolitical context, notably tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over the Yemen conflict, adds a layer of instability that complicates forecasts for the coming quarters. In addition, political uncertainty in Venezuela—despite holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves—continues due to internal and international constraints.
In view of these variables, the decision to freeze production targets reflects a wait-and-see approach in an environment where demand remains fragile and geopolitical balances volatile.
