EU Ban on Russian Gas Opens Strategic Opportunities for Africa
The European Union will ban Russian gas imports starting in 2026. With 620 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves, the African continent could become a preferred supplier while addressing its own energy needs.
| Countries | Mauritanie, Mozambique, Sénégal |
|---|---|
| Sector | Gaz |
| Theme | Politique & Géopolitique |
The Council of the European Union (EU) and the European Parliament signed a provisional agreement in December 2025 to progressively ban Russian gas imports. This decision is part of the REPowerEU roadmap, launched following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The agreement provides for a complete ban on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from 2026 and pipeline gas from 2027. Short-term contracts concluded before June 2025 will expire in 2026, while long-term LNG contracts will be prohibited from January 2027.
A European Market Still Dependent on Russian Gas
Long-term pipeline gas contracts will end in September or November 2027, depending on whether storage targets are met. Amendments to existing contracts will be strictly regulated and cannot increase volumes. Russian oil now accounts for less than 3% of European imports. Russian gas still represents around 13% of EU supplies, worth more than €15 billion annually. The regulation requires member states to submit national diversification plans detailing their strategies for replacing Russian supplies.
North Africa has established export infrastructure. Algeria, Egypt and Libya account for two-thirds of continental production. According to available projections, North Africa’s share would fall below 40% by 2035 as other regional producers emerge. West and East African LNG producers, positioned along Atlantic and Indian Ocean trade routes, could function as swing suppliers.
Considerable Reserves to Develop
Africa reportedly holds approximately 620 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves. The Rovuma Basin, off Tanzania and Mozambique, would contain 129 tcf. Nigeria’s Niger Delta would represent 113 tcf. The year 2025 saw the start-up of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project in Mauritania and Senegal, as well as the launch of Congo LNG Phase 2 and the resumption of Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG projects.
The African continent faces a balancing challenge. More than 600 million people lack access to electricity and 900 million lack clean cooking solutions. By 2050, African gas demand would increase by 60%, according to sector estimates. The GTA project allocates 35 million standard cubic feet per day for domestic use in each partner country, alongside exports.
An Evolving Contractual Model
The integration of domestic market obligations into LNG projects is gaining traction. This approach directly links export growth with gas availability for local markets. NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, states that African gas resources must primarily serve the continent’s needs. The African Energy Week 2026 conference will bring together policymakers, producers and financiers to define Africa’s positioning in this fragmented energy context. Europe is now seeking reliable suppliers capable of delivering long-term volumes under transparent regulatory frameworks.
